WHAT WILL HAPPEN, WHEN WE LEAVE IRAQ?
One of the few things humans have in common is their ability to reason. Not that everything they think is reasonable. But, everyone has ideas. Lately, I have been curious as to why some people think it is expedient to pull out of Iraq, and why others think it would be a disastrous move. Here are some of my ideas. Everyone has opinions about this. I would like you to think seriously about the assumptions underlying either option. Think critically.
PULLING OUT OF THE IRAQ SCENARIO
These are just my ideas and may, or may not be true.
There is a new President in the United States. She makes the decision to put an end to the disaster of trying to install democracy in Iraq. This decision is made with the consultation of her political advisers. The military advises against this move, stating that a precipitous withdrawal will destabilize the area. The political pride of her party will not allow her to listen to voices of concern. The Iraqi government wants the United States to remain until the country is stable. The radical imams want the United States occupiers to leave immediately. The citizens of her country overwhelmingly want her to pull out, seeing the high death rates to both Iraqi civilians and US and United Kingdom forces.
She reasons that we must put an end to the vicious cycle of violence.
THE CURRENTS BENEATH THE SURFACE
Like all raging rivers, there are currents beneath the surface that cause instability and will drown unsuspecting swimmers that venture into their influence. Iraq is a feudal country, a land of tribes and chieftains. They run the country. The influence of the Imams is extremely strong. Religion in these most of these Middle Eastern countries is the state. That is confusing for Americans to comprehend. Democracy, as we know it, won't survive in feudal states. It must come from the consent of the governed. Right now, there are too many factions fighting each other. Shia and Sunni, but also Christians in Lebanon, and Israel all seek power. Now is not the right time for democracy in these areas.
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN, IF WE PULLED OUT
The President would have to do "what if" scenarios, which have, no doubt, already been set up by the Pentagon. Here is what I see happening.
Six months before the date-certain pull out, Al-Qaida announces a defeat of all Western forces and the exultation of the power of Islam. Not all of Islam is this radical faction, and a sub-plot emerge between which forces of Islam, Shia or Sunni, will control the region. Al-Qaida's purpose is not nationalistic, it is the establishment of one nation in the world, with Islamic law. It would be like the Taliban taking over Afghanistan. There would be no freedom, no foreigners, no other religions tolerated, no education other than the Koran, women are serfs, the country goes back to the 15th century model, and Islamic law is the rule of choice. Just because we get out of Iraq does not mean this movement will stop from their stated purpose. Iraq will be flooded with insurgents from both Syria and Iran, both vying to take over as much of the country as possible. Syria is allied with the Sunnis and Iran sides with the Shia. There will be bloody vendettas between tribes, families who suffered under Saddam Hussein. The country will run red because of the lack of the rule of law. As long as the United States is in Iraq, everyone hates them. As soon as their leave, confessional killings will increase, as both sides build up Armies and try to carve out territories. The Kurds retreat to their areas and arm themselves even more than now. The Central Government collapses and the Iraqi Army has dissolved along tribal and confessional lines. There will be an unimaginable bloodbath of retaliation and revenge. With the United States gone, nothing will prevent the old animosities from surging forward. Power is the name of the game. Think of what happened in Viet-Nam, Cambodia, after the war. Is there any reason to think that this pullout will be any different? Many will die, many more will be displaced and refugees for life in a country other than Iraq. The United Nations will be incapable of responding to any of these countries. They don't have the infrastructure. The game afoot is for the soul of Islam, and it will be fought within Islam by moderates and fanatics.
On the day of the pullout, American forces will be ambushed by emboldened, insurgent fighters. All factions will parade blind-folded captive soldiers on Al-Jezera television proclaiming that the United States was defeated by it wickedness. The whole Middle East will erupt in rejoicing. Soldiers will appear on television telling of how the war was bad and they were against it, and that no one listened. Get ready for it, it has already happened.The American public will be traumatized by the parade of captives, much like the Iranian Hostage Incident during the time of President Carter. Masters of manipulation, the insurgents will put into place the second part of their plan. The overthrow of Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the oil rich Emirates. They will do to them what they did in Iraq. The United States and United Kingdom, will retreat, lick their wounds, and not respond to urgent requests from their Allies to help them. Politics has won; democracy has lost again. The choice, like the Harry Potter movie, The Goblet of Fire, says, is between what is right and what is easy. So, should we give us so easily?
THE LOSS OF INNOCENCE AND THE LOSS OF INFLUENCE
The United States Goliath, capable of war on an unimaginable scale, has been humbled by David with rockets and slingshots. Iraq and Syria rush in to claim their booty, the power and influence of a future bleak with more and more violence. The United States has lost its innocence, but it has also lost credibility. The President now has a larger issue to confront--the spread of revolution to it Allies and in Lebanon. Israel, the most powerful nation in the area, prepares for all out war. Al-Qaida knows that, if they keep pushing the hot button of war, Israel, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and the Emirates, will be weaken and fall. Time is on their side. They have a religious conviction that what they do is for God. In their minds, nothing can stop them now.
Political parties are posturing to see, NOT if we should get out of Iraq, but when and how. We don't have the stomach to see people dying on a daily basis for nebulous reasons. Television captures the most gruesome details of death and dying and we are instant captives of CNN. Are we thinking of withdrawing from Kosovo, South Korea, Japan, Okinawa, England, and Germany? Why not? No casualties. The point is this. Politicians must be very careful of the implications of withdrawal from anywhere. What are the assumptions that underlie withdrawing from Iraq? Have we thought it out enough, beyond looking at the latest poll? Our new President will have much to ponder. Let's hope she gets people around her with compassionate hearts.
The President is the moral conscience of the United States. We are not the guardians of the world, the installers of democracy in those places not ready to accept it, and the blank check for military industrialists?
I would like the United States known for three values. 1. Mediation of regional disputes; 2. Peacemaking, or the moral voice for those too weak to stand up to powerful military countries; 3. Championing of freedom, life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Military might is not an end, but a means to secure those freedoms we take for granted.
WHAT DOES LEAVING IRAQ HAVE TO DO WITH SPIRITUALITY
As I see it, part of spirituality has to do with ideals, such as human rights, the dignity of the human person to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, and finding out where you fit in life.
War is an aberration of the collective human psyche. Wars have always happened, but that may mean that we, as spiritual apes, have not evolved that far from our ancestors in caves. Certainly we don't practice what great spiritual leaders like Muhammad, Jesus, Moses, Solomon, and the great Buddha have taught us. Humans are in their terrible twos, in terms of developmental spirituality.
SOLUTIONS
Are there solutions to this conflict? Yes, but they should be thought out with our Allies.
Am I correct? No one is totally correct. These are some of my ideas. What are your thoughts?
Future topics will be:
Immigration and Imagination
Religion Wars
Spirituality at the 50,000 foot level
Spirituality and Time
Spiritual Depression
Grief and Growth
HOW TO DIE WELL
BOOKS
Who Rows Your Boat? How to Be Happier than You Can Possibly Imagine
The Woman Who Changed Time: Spirituality and Time
The Three Rules of the Spiritual Universe: Choose an Authentic Center that Leads to Heaven.
HOW TO DIE WELL. So, You Know You Are Going to Die, Now What?
HOW TO GRIEVE WELL. What Happens to You After You Have Lost a Loved One?
www.thelearningdoctor.com/books
